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The global shrimp industry is beginning to recover, and Chinese market demand will dominate market prices.
This year, the hope for the recovery of the shrimp industry in the world is pinned on China's opening up demand and the reopening of the US food service industry. At present, the global shrimp industry has entered the buyer's market stage. As major producing countries continue to increase production, the global shrimp market will continue to increase supply by 2021.
Among the major producing countries, Ecuador is developing at an alarming rate. Global exports of Ecuadorian shrimp increased by 7% in 2020 to 1.49 billion pounds.
When Chinese imports fell, Ecuador adjusted its product structure and quickly shifted to the US and European markets. In 2020, exports to Europe increased by 27% to 329 million pounds, while exports to the United States increased by 50% to 260 million pounds. The United States has achieved growth in shrimp consumption in 2020. The main factor for the growth is the low retail price of shrimp products, and the growth of the shrimp product retail industry in the United States. The US market in 2021 will be similar to the situation in 2020.
The import and export dynamics in Europe are fairly stable, with both volume and value declining. During Covid-19, due to restrictions and the closure of the catering industry, this is also to be expected.
The price of Ecuadorian white shrimp has largely squeezed the market share of India and Indonesia in the US and European markets. After experiencing the initial rapid growth, the subsequent growth rate in Europe and the United States will slow down.
The Indian shrimp industry is most affected by Covid-19. Due to the implementation of the blockade measures, the export of Indian shrimp has stalled. Not only will export prices fall in 2020, but export volumes will also fall. In 2020, India’s exports will fall by 12-15%. In early 2021, prices will rise, which will encourage farmers to increase shrimp seedlings. The supply of Indian shrimp is expected to rebound.
The situation in the Vietnamese market is different from Ecuador and India. The epidemic has interrupted the growth of Vietnamese shrimp. Since October last year, the export volume and export value of Vietnamese shrimp have both declined slightly. Vietnam has suffered two major price drops, one at the beginning of 2020 and the other because of the second lockdown period last year. The export destinations of Vietnamese shrimp are quite diverse. The export volumes of Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea are very similar. Vietnam’s export prices at the beginning of this year were the highest among several major shrimp-producing countries.
The situation of shrimp in Indonesia is different from that of several other countries. Indonesia has not shown a growth trend before, but by 2020, Indonesia's processing capacity will increase. Indonesian shrimp is very dependent on the US market, but this year there will be competition from Indian shrimp and Ecuadorian shrimp in the US market. Manufacturers in India and Ecuador are seeking to get rid of their excessive dependence on China, so as to achieve the development of other markets. Nikolik said: "All these factors combined make it difficult for Indonesia to achieve this year's growth plan and development momentum."
In view of the above basic data, the demand of the Chinese market will determine the price trend of global white shrimp, especially Ecuador and India, which will have a huge impact on the two major white shrimp producing countries.